封面文章：沮丧的蓝筹股

　　文章导读：本期封面文章对今年美国蓝筹股一直走势不佳的现象作出分析。对于这些大公司的蓝筹股一直势态低迷的情况，文章从历史分析入手，通过90年代后期蓝筹股的异常牛市来解释当期一蹶不振的原因：一方面是随着20世纪末市场化全球化的进程，经济发展的大爆发，蓝筹股指数达到一个过高的顶点，之后很难再超过；另一方面是经济过热之后的适当紧缩，以及911等事件对美国经济的打击，蓝筹相对于小企业股票的应变性差的问题。最后文章提到，蓝筹股将来仍然会走向牛市，但金融市场的多样化，使投资者将会理性的分析市场。从宏观的角度讲，不失为一件好事。

　　Cover Story:Blue Chip Blues

　　Just a few years ago, U.S. blue chip stocks were the most respected asset class in the world. No longer. In May, the $22 billion Fidelity Blue Chip Growth fund, which holds shares of giant U.S. companies such as Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, and Wal-Mart Stores, will make a surprising request. It will ask shareholders to approve a switch in its benchmark from the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, a traditional blue-chip barometer, to the Russell 1000 Growth Index, a broader gauge that includes many smaller companies. "The move," says fund manager John McDowell, "reflects the investment style of the fund through thick and thin." Meanwhile, another Fidelity fund, $50 billion Magellan, recently dumped blue chips Pfizer, Intel, and Procter & Gamble and boosted its foreign holdings to 25%, up from 4% just a few months ago.

　　These are confusing times for the shareholders of America's biggest corporations. General Electric Co.has boosted its earnings by 22% since Chief Executive Jeffrey R. Immelt took the reins on Sept. 7, 2001. But GE's once vaunted stock price has languished during his tenure. Home Depot Inc., the second-biggest U.S. retailer, has more than doubled its profits since 2001, a feat rewarded with a measly 1.5% bump in its stock price. Intel Corp.'s prize for boosting its earnings by 173% in five years? A 30% plunge in its shares.

　　A similar malaise afflicts Walt Disney (DIS ), Microsoft, Pfizer, Wal-Mart, and others across many sectors and industries. What exasperates the leaders of these corporations is that it seems there's little they can do about it. They're delivering the earnings growth, but investors aren't responding. At work are forces largely beyond their control.

　　BOILING DOWN TO ZILCH

　　Welcome to the blue chip blues. The S&P 500 is near a five-year high. But don't celebrate: It has returned just 4.3% annually during that span, far less than its long-term average of 10%. The S&P 100-stock index -- the bluest of the blue chips, with $6.5 trillion in market capitalization and a huge share of U.S. corporate profits -- has returned just 2.03% annually to investors during that span, chiefly from dividends. Without dividends, it's just 0.94% overall, or 0.19% annually. In any event, after taxes and inflation, that pretty much boils down to zilch. Things have gotten so bad that ISI Group strategist Jason R. Trennert has said blue chips could be "the cheapest asset class in the developed world."